Research
How do social identities, partisanship, and elite cues affect Americans' beliefs about government and public policy? My research, which spans the study of political behavior and political institutions, is rooted in this overarching question. I am specifically interested in how racial, religious, and place-based identities shape political attitudes, as well as in how Americans view government and civic institutions.
A selection of my published work and work in progress is detailed below.
Dissertation and Book Project
Which Shepherds to Follow?: Cross-Pressured Catholic Politics in a Polarized America
Grants Awarded:
American Political Science Association, Section 11. Religion and Politics: Small Research Grant
University of Notre Dame Institute for the Study of the Liberal Arts: American Dream Grant
University of Notre Dame Institute for the Study of the Liberal Arts: Graduate Student Research Award
Abstract: How do voters react when their social identities (e.g. religion, race, gender, class, etc.) become a source of political cross-pressures? In other words, how do individuals respond when their social identities do not simply reinforce a particular partisanship but rather present political cues that align with different partisan or ideological orientations? Social and partisan identities, and cross-pressures specifically, have long been a subject of study for political scientists. However, increased sorting of social groups in American politics with either of the two major political parties has challenged the conventional understanding of the relationship between social and partisan identities in American society—while also contributing to political polarization. This dissertation examines the
extent to which social identities that have remained politically unsorted in American politics can still influence the politics of their members. Specifically, this work considers these questions by focusing on Roman Catholics in the United States, a major social
identity group which has remained relatively unsorted in politics even amidst rising partisan polarization. Subsequently, this dissertation also presents one of the most in-depth studies of the politics of the largest religious denomination in the United States. As
American Catholics have transitioned from a committed bloc of the Democratic Party base to a politically diverse constituency in recent decades, the extent to which Catholic identity and religiosity matter in modern politics has become a critical question.
Meanwhile, the social and moral teachings of the Catholic Church, which align with the Republican Party on some issues and the Democratic Party on others, serves as a powerful source of possible cross-pressures for lay Catholics. Using time-series survey
data from the 1940s through the 2020s, an original representative national public opinion survey of the political attitudes of American Catholics, and multiple survey experiments, this dissertation provides new details and insights into modern Catholic politics. This
dissertation specifically includes new evidence about the extent to which Catholic individuals feel torn between their faith and their politics, important nuance about how policy cues from religious leaders can influence public attitudes, and how religious
identity and ideology can shape voters’ candidate evaluations. As the Roman Catholic Church begins the papacy of the first American pope, Pope Leo XIV, this dissertation examines how identity, religiosity, ethnicity, and partisanship influence the cross-pressured politics of one of the United States’ largest and most politically salient religious groups.
Publications
Greenleaf, Harrison P., and James R. G. Kirk. 2025. “Populism, Partisanship, and Protection: Elite Rhetoric and U.S. Public Opinion on NATO.” Political Science Quarterly: 1–20. doi:10.1093/psquar/qqaf120.
Abstract: The rise of populists across the globe has caused increasing alarm about the continued functioning of security alliances. This is particularly true for the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with populist President Donald Trump repeatedly disparaging the alliance since his 2016 campaign. Yet, we know very little about how populism influences support for alliances, particularly in the context of the United States. Here, we examine the impact of populist messaging on U.S. public opinion toward NATO. First, using observational data from the 2020 American National Election Studies Time Series Survey, we find that NATO support is correlated with populist sentiments. We investigate this connection further by using an original survey experiment in which we test two different negative-NATO populist frames and their impact on U.S. public opinion concerning support for NATO. We find clear evidence that populist attitudes are negatively associated with affect toward NATO, and we find partial support for our primary causal hypotheses about the effect of populist rhetoric on support for NATO. Finally, we find evidence of clear conditional partisan treatment effects of populist criticisms of NATO, with Democratic respondents consistently being more responsive to populist messages that erode support for NATO.
Allen, Levi G. and James R. G. Kirk. 2025. “God’s Country: Perceptions of Religious and Place-based Candidate Identities.” Politics and Religion, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1017/S175504832510014X.
Abstract: It is often assumed that the rural identity is linked to the Republican Party and the urban identity to the Democratic Party, but little scholarship has investigated how voters connect thiese identities to the parties in an electoral context and how that perception may influence their electoral preferences. Furthermore, recent elections have seen various political elites employ rural and Evangelical Christian identity labels in virtually synonymous ways in their association with the Republican Party. But are these partisan stereotypes really how Americans perceive these candidate identities? Utilizing a novel survey experiment, we find important distinctions between religious and place-based candidate cues. Our results show the enduring power of religion in partisan politics and suggest America’s urban-rural divide may be asymmetric in the minds of voters. These findings are subsequently meaningful for the study of religion’s place in America’s growing array of politicized social identities.
Kirk, James R. G. “Safe Haven?: Place, Faith, and Perceptions of Religion in Rural America.” In Rethinking Rural, eds. Nicholas Jacobs and Daniel Shea. De Gruyter. (Forthcoming).
Kirk, James R. G. 2025. “Landscape of Distrust: Political Trust Across America’s Urban-Rural Divide.” American Politics Research 53(1): 28–35. doi:10.1177/1532673X241273220.
Abstract: Do rural Americans trust the government less than non-rural Americans? In an era of declining trust in government and mounting geographic polarization, this research examines the relationship between geography, identity, and attitudes of political trust in the United States. Using national survey data from the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies time series surveys, this quantitative analysis tests hypotheses that rurality in the context of place and place-based identity is associated with lower trust in the federal government. Overall, the results show that both living in and identifying with more rural areas corresponds with decreased government trust, regardless of the political party of the incumbent president. These findings contribute to the understanding of America’s urban-rural political divide and suggest significant implications for both partisan leaders and policymakers.
Voelkel, Jan G., Michael N. Stagnaro, James Chu,... James R. Kirk,...James Druckman, David Rand, Robb Willer, and others. 2024. “Megastudy Identifying Effective Interventions to Strengthen Americans’ Democratic Attitudes.” Science, 386, eadh4764. doi:10.1126/science.adh4764.
Editor's summary: Scholars and the public have raised concerns about the recent erosion of US democratic values, which has been exacerbated by hostility between rival political groups (partisan animosity) and acceptance of violent or nondemocratic styles of political engagement (antidemocratic attitudes). Voelkel et al. conducted large-scale field experiments with 25 interventions designed to decrease American partisan animosity and antidemocratic attitudes (see the Policy Forum by Nyhan and Titiunik). Most interventions reduced partisan animosity when they established common ground among partisans. However, reducing partisan animosity did not necessarily decrease support for political violence or nondemocratic practices. Therefore, partisan animosity may be more conceptually distinct than previously thought.
Layman, Geoffrey C., Levi G. Allen, James R. G. Kirk, Wayde Z. C. Marsh, and Benjamin Radcliff. 2024. “The Pandemic and Political Behavior : Staying the Course.” PS, Political Science & Politics, 57(3):414-419. doi:10.1017/S1049096523000884.
Campbell, David E., Kirk, James R. G. and Layman, Geoffrey C.. 2021. "Religion and the 2020 Presidential Election: The Enduring Divide." The Forum 18, no. 4: 581-605. https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2020-2104.
Abstract: Religion played a prominent role in the 2020 presidential campaign. Donald Trump overtly courted white evangelical Protestants and Catholics, while Joe Biden emphasized his Catholicism far more than any Catholic candidate in American history. Did religion play as important a role in electoral behavior in 2020? If so, how and why did religion affect Americans’ voting decisions? We take up those questions by analyzing the religious vote in 2020 and the reasons why particular religious and non-religious groups voted as they did. We find that the religious divisions in the 2020 electorate were quite deep, but they were mostly unchanged from those present in 2016. Moreover, some electoral differences between religious groups are based in factors such as racial resentment, support for limited government, and anti-immigration attitudes that are not typically associated with religion. However, a key explanation for religious voting in 2020 was an old standby: the abortion issue. The religion gap in American electoral politics represents an enduring divide. The only changes were at the margins—but where elections are close, margins matter.
Kirk, James. 2019. “Understanding Security: Factors Influencing National Military Expenditures.” Issues in Political Economy 28 (2): 5-21.
Works in Progress
Under Review or Revise and Resubmit
“Placing Your Faith: The Religious Foundations of America's Urban-Rural Divide” with Levi Allen (invited to revise and resubmit at Social Science Quarterly)
“Rural or Racial Resentment?: The Partisan and Racial Contours of Place” with Levi Allen (under review)
“Harder to Mend: The Limits and Potential of Pro-Democratic Rhetoric” with Shay Hafner, Conner Martinez, and Matt Hall (under review)
In Preparation
“’Joe Biden is a Fake Catholic!’ Candidate Identity and Voter Perceptions”
“Understanding Americans' contradictory support for political compromise” with Abigail Hemmen
“Friend or Foe?: The Role of Cross-Cutting Elite Information in Reducing Polarization” with Levi Allen
“A New Path Forward: Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Increase Trust and Legitimacy in U.S. Elections and Institutions” with Wayde Marsh and Levi Allen
“’The Universities are the Enemy:’ Political Attitudes on Higher Education”
“The Politics of Political Elite Condolences” with Levi Allen
“’Looking Out for These Parts’: Measuring Place-based Attitudes on Government Trust and Responsiveness”
“Coal Mine Closures and Support for Environmental Ballot Measures” with Bill Kakenmaster